The BCS Stystem: Just Play the Game

The final BCS Rankings of the year have just come out and we now know who will be playing in the largest 5 college bowl games this season, including the National Championship. My undergraduate school was the University of Southern California. We started out number 4 in the BCS polls and never could break into the top two teams to go to the National Championship, and this isn't the first year it has happened. The topic of the BCS system of picking college football bowl appearances even concerns President Obama who said he would "throw his weight around" on the matter and just recently Congress began looking further into the issue. The way the numerical ranking are derived from:

1. The Harris Intercollegiate Football Poll (114 human panelists),
2. The USA Today Coaches' Poll (59 human panelists) and,
3. The average of six computer rankings (the highest ranking and lowest ranking for each team are discarded)

Teams move up and down in the rankings a good deal depending on wins but more so on losses. In college football, teams in the National Championship game usually have either 1 loss or no losses. This year alone there are 5 teams without any losses, but only two will get to play in the National Championship game. The best way for teams to avoid this is to develop their conference schedule accordingly. The football season is a sequential game in which each team takes a turn each week playing another team. Each team has an opportunity to affect their ranking. This year there are 5 teams that went undefeated and three will not get to go to the National Championship. How can you avoid this and maximize your EMV...or BCS score. Universities can do this by setting their football game schedules. When deciding on whether to play an opponent or not schools must determine the probably that they will win the game and then what the payoff will be for the win. If it is an easy school then they may have a high probability of winning the game, but they don't gain much payoff in the BCS system rankings. On the other hand, they could schedule a more difficult team with a win with a higher expected payoff; however, they will have a higher probability of losing. Like stated earlier, even if you go undefeated you can not end up in the National Championship game! You must schedule the right amount of good opponents coupled with the best probability to give you your max EMV. EMV can take many things into account in college football scheduling such as the more difficult games earlier in the season can be advantageous because losses do not count against teams as do losses at the end of the season. Also, games scheduled during the day have a higher payoff because more people who vote on BCS see them. The BCS system is here to stay, you just got to play the game.